Tag Archives: megatrends

Megatrends Are Defining Our Future

Posted on by

0

Understanding megatrends – their characteristics and impacts – is not easy and is made even more difficult by the fact that we lack a common understanding of what exactly they  are. The trend analyst and futurist Matthias Horx provides a helpfully short definition (taken from this website):

  • A megatrend has a half-life of at least 30 years.
  • It must be apparent in all areas of life: in everyday life, in politics, in culture, in the economy.
  • Megatrends can be observed all over the world, they are a truly global phenomenon.
  • A megatrend can survive setbacks, and its influence may weaken temporarily.

Since we are lacking  a  common understanding about what megatrends are, it is hardly surprising  that numerous researchers, institutions or news sources identify widely different megatrends (see e.g. here or here)

In his 2010 book “The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future”, the geophysicist Laurence Smith of the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) names four megatrends. I highly recommend this book as it gives a general overview of how megatrends will affect people’s everyday lives in the future. What’s more, Smith also shows that megatrends do not come about in splendid isolation but rather amplify each other.

The author writes that he was initially planning to write a book about climate change yet during his extended visits to the Arctic region he noticed that climate change can’t be considered as a stand-alone issue. Consequently, Smith identifies four megatrends that will shape our future: demographic change, natural resources, globalization and climate change. To put it more precisely, Smith suggests that the biggest challenge of the century will be the following scenario:

The world’s population spikes at more than 9 billion people. This increase primarily takes place in developing countries that suffer from water stress. These people will be wealthier and will eat more meat, resulting in an increase in food production. The volume of agricultural products has to  double to meet this demand. In turn, this increase in agricultural production requires more water. Industrial capacity has to be extended and millions of new buildings have to be built (mostly in already densely populated urban areas). Quite apart from which, the water cycle also needs to be kept clean.

Laurence Smith sets up a thought experiment. Taking current data on megatrends as his basis, he tries to imagine what the world could look like in 2050 while avoiding taking account of any unpredictable developments like abrupt climate change. His conclusion is that the Northern Rim Countries (Russia, United States, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland and Sweden) will benefit from these four megatrends mainly because warming in the Arctic region will release a vast amount of natural resources (like oil and gas) for exploitation. Furthermore, the water reserves in these countries will even grow unlike those of the global south. Plus, with the exception of Russia, the population in these countries is expected to grow whereas many other industrialized countries will suffer from a sharp drop in population.

At the end of his book Smith emphasizes that the impacts of the megatrends he outlines are not unavoidable. They are influenced by societal decisions. Personal decisions, he says, can indeed alter the perceptions and decisions of others.

Raising awareness is a precondition for changing people’s behavior. Only if we know what the future could look like will we be able and willing to act.

This article has originally been published by me on futurechallenges.org.

Think Twice Tea Party Republicans

Posted on by

0

Photo published by Sage Ross on Flickr under a CC BY-SA 2.0 license

Looking at the US debt ceiling debate and the Republicans’ stance on avoiding tax increases for wealthy Americans and generally a withdrawal of the state structures themselves I thought which argument could actually convince a Tea Party Republican that a strong state is needed. They would have to look beyond borders – I would like to add a cynical suspicion that many of them aren’t used to do it.

We all know that the world is confronted with tremendous challenges like climate change or  a population boom in some parts of the world while at the same time food security has become a prominent issue. The United States themselves are one of the major players in a global power shift and this shift doesn’t evolve in their favor. Times of the “Lonely Superpower” have gone. During the worldwide financial crisis we have seen that even the G8 countries are not capable any longer of overcoming such a deep crisis. Instead, the G20 mechanism, including countries like China, Brazil or India was commissioned with finding sustainable solutions to this global crisis. The global financial crisis and concerted efforts to overcome it have proven that the state is not doomed. People who condemned the state were suddenly crying for it to take countermeasures.

Now, this fact will even be more valid in the future. The US just like other countries have to be responsive to climate change (mitigation and adaptation) or to an ever decreasing supply of natural resources. This requires immense investment into new technologies like renewable energies but first and foremost into education. This will probably be the most important resource of the future.

How should this be achieved other than by the state? It has to invest into research, development and education. For this purpose it simply needs money. This doesn’t mean that the state should continuously increase its debts. Nevertheless, a state that gets castrated and that lacks financial resources won’t be able to provide a solid basis upon which its citizens can pursue their own happiness.